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Mercredi, 20 Octobre 2010 13:00

Climate Change Won't End the World — Just Certain Real Estate Markets

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Illustration: Rami Niemi

Illustration: Rami Niemi

Everyone thinks that global warming will kill us all. But according to Climatopolis, a new book by UCLA economist Matthew Kahn, climate change won’t destroy Earth—just fundamentally change it.

“City growth has caused climate

change,” Kahn says. “But that growth is also what’s going to get us out of it.” That is, as the weather heats up, people will migrate and change their behavior—affecting city landscapes, architecture, quality of life, cost of living, infrastructure, and more. Here’s how some key US cities might look in our hot, crowded, flooded future.

LOS ANGELES   Between raging wildfires, thickening smog, and suffocating inland temps, only a fraction of LA will remain habitable, increasing the population density along the coast. Sprawl will give way to high-rises, and the inevitable carbon tax will decimate what’s left of the city’s car culture.

SAN DIEGO   The Road meets The Golden Girls! Once temperatures soar, potable water becomes scarce, and 24/7 air-conditioning ratchets up demand for electricity, the able-bodied will migrate away, leaving the elderly and infirm to duke it out for whatever limited resources remain.

PHOENIX   Like the rest of the Sunbelt, Phoenix has seen its population skyrocket because sunbirds have been drawn in by its toasty winters. But as the climate warms and residents flee ever roastier summers, this bird will descend back into the ashes. Hey, at least it’s a dry heat.

DETROIT   Here’s a sign of the apocalypse: By the year 2100, Detroit will be one of the country’s most desirable cities, along with Salt Lake City, Milwaukee, and Minneapolis. Inland and elevated, they are unlikely to suffer natural fires and will actually benefit from warmer winters.

NEW YORK   Once Wall Street traders figure out that their workplace is only a few feet above sea level and increasingly threatened by hurricanes, they’ll relocate to suburban New Jersey or Westchester County. Sure, they might wreck the local economy, but they’ve done that before.

Authors: Zach Gottlieb

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