So say the prognosticators at J.D. Power and Associates, who say combined global sales of hybrids and battery electrics will reach 5.2 million by 2020. That’s 7.3 percent of the 70.9 million passenger vehicles it forecasts will be sold. For the sake of comparison, such vehicles will comprise 2.2 percent of the 44.7 million vehicles expected to be sold worldwide this year.

The report finds a large migration to hybrids and EVs will require one or more of the following scenarios: A significant increase in petroleum prices, a significant reduction in the cost of the technology and coordinated government policies to promote adoption of such vehicles. “Based on currently available information,” J.D. Power says it doesn’t expect those things to happen.

“We don’t anticipate a mass migration to green vehicles in the coming decade,” John Humphrey, senior VP of automotive operations, said in a statement.

There are some other issues.

J.D. Power found consumers have several concerns about hybrids and battery electrics, including:

• They don’t like how the cars look.
• They worry about the reliability of the technology.
• They’re dissatisfied with the power and performance of the vehicles.
• They’re concerned by the range and the time needed to recharge electric vehicles.

Appearance will always be subjective, but aerodynamics plays a role in why hybrids and electrics look the way they do. Aerodynamic efficiency is key to maximizing fuel economy (in a hybrid) or range (in an EV). Performance is likewise subjective — yes, you can quantify things like zero to 60 times, but such things are of little importance to some consumers and great importance to others.

It’s true EVs are limited by range — currently about 100 miles for most of them — and a lack of public charging infrastructure. Anyone who commutes vast distances isn’t going to consider an EV, end of story. But 100 miles is plenty for urban residents. As for the infrastructure question, 95 percent of people surveyed by the Electric Power Research Institute said they would prefer to charge their cars at home. That’s not to say we won’t need public charging, but it may not be the big hurdle people think it is.

Of greater concern to many consumers, though, is the price of the cars. J.D. Power found that many consumers are interested in hybrids and electrics, but their interest wanes when they learn of the “price premium” for the technology. “For example, among consumers in the U.S. who initially say they are interested in buying a hybrid vehicle, the number declines by some 50 percent when they learn of the extra $5,000, on average, it would cost to acquire the vehicle,” Humphrey said.

This is another valid point.

Electric vehicles are expensive because batteries are expensive, and that remains another Achilles’ heel of the technology. State and federal incentives help alleviate that, but at some point the government will stop subsidizing the technology. Hybrids tend to cost more than their conventional counterparts because of the added technology and because automakers pack them with features that increase costs. The “hybrid premium” is cited by those who argue hybrids are a lousy value because you won’t recoup the difference in fuel savings.

Such arguments overlook other reasons people buy hybrids, not the least of which is the improved fuel efficiency and reduced emissions. Those reasons surely will apply to people who buy battery electric vehicles like the Nissan Leaf and range-extended electric vehicles like the Chevrolet Volt.

Still, J.D. Power says altruism won’t be enough. It predicts consumers will buy 3.9 million hybrids and 1.3 million battery electric vehicles worldwide in 2020. The remaining 65.7 million vehicles will rely exclusively on internal combustion engines.

Photo of the Hyundai Sonata Hybrid: Hyundai.

Authors: Chuck Squatriglia

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