“The iPad,” writes Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore, “is driving a rapid, unprecedented shift in the structure of the computing industry.”

Apple had a great year relative to the rest of the PC industry, with desktop and laptop sales growing by 24.1 percent when most of its competitors’ revenues shrank or stayed flat. The growth in sales and share is even more impressive when you factor in the launch of the iPad.

In a note for clients issued Monday, Whitmore took PC share data from the International Data Corporation’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker and added in figures for iPad sales. The result is the chart above.

Part of what’s happening here is a struggle to define “personal computer” in a world of convergent and crossover devices. IDC’s data for PCs includes desktops, laptops and mini notebooks, but doesn’t include handhelds or servers. The iPad and other tablets count as handhelds, along with smartphones, e-readers and media players. Even though tablets and ultraportable netbooks fall in the same price range, perform many (although not all) of the same tasks and compete with each other for buyers’ attention and dollars, they’re not grouped in the same category.

Deutsche Bank’s graph isn’t quite fair, because the iPad is the only nontraditional computer added to the dataset. It’s not clear what the numbers would look like if you factored in all tablet computers and smartphones, not just Apple’s. And there may be good reasons, from different form factors to different operating systems, to keep PC and tablet sales separate. In fact, by keeping the numbers separate, you can see just how well Apple’s PC business has done on its own. It’s still behind HP and Dell, but is showing recent growth while some competitors, such as Acer, are losing ground.

But three things are clear. First, the market for tablet computers is enormous. Second, Apple has essentially created that market and currently owns it. And third, if the iPad is cannibalizing sales of PCs, it’s not Apple’s PCs that are getting cannibalized.

All of this makes this week’s upcoming Apple event — and the possible presentation of a new device somewhere between a laptop and an iPad — just that much more interesting.

What If the iPad Were a PC? [Fortune Tech]

See Also:

• Despite Runaway Popularity, iPad Isn't Hurting PC Sales
• Chipmakers Feel the Pain as iPad Eats Into Notebook Sales
• Rumor: Apple to Introduce 11.6-Inch MacBook Next Week
• New MacBook Air Will Come in 11 and 13-Inch Flavors
• Apple's Going Back to the Mac on October 20th
• Best Buy Chief: iPad Cuts Laptop Sales in Half
• Could the iPad Save the Desktop Computer?

Authors: Tim Carmody

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