… wherein I oversimplify really complex matters to make a simple point, building on the observations of many others. My bias is from the grassroots up, as a straight-up nerd. (As Leonard Cohen says in Tower of Song, “I was born like this …”)

Hey, Ray Kurzweil has a point about what he calls the Singularity, which is about the unpredictability of the results of accelerating technology. The deal is that a singularity is an event which the rules change in unexpected and unpredictable ways; it’s a total game-changer. He foresees, for example, that increasing computing power and neural science will enable us to transfer our minds to computer hardware, and sooner than one would expect.

I’m not that optimistic, but I feel that we’re living in a singularity right now, given the way people use the internet and social media to effect big change. By 2020, my guess is that media and power relationships will reach a new balance, a new equilibrium, between the traditional holders of power and unexpected influencers arising from the grassroots.

That is: The power of elites, based on money and nominal authority, will be complemented and balanced by people representing new forms of power and influence. Individuals and groups will self-organize into power blocs of an unexpected nature, and wield influence.

This will be paralleled with major changes in the media landscape, as the formerly powerless exercise power influence via evolving media, which is undergoing simultaneous change with the political landscape.

That is: Mass media and politics evolve together, in inseparable ways.

Maybe a look at previous large scale change can clarify.

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